Monotonicity conjecture for final-state probabilities in the Offended Voter Model

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Let AN\mathcal{A}_N and CN\mathcal{C}_N be the final states defined in the model's classification, and write Pq\mathbb{P}_q for probability under parameter qq. Monotonicity conjecture. The final-state probabilities satisfy

q↦Pq(AN) is decreasing,q↦Pq(CN) is increasing.q\mapsto\mathbb{P}_q(\mathcal{A}_N)\text{ is decreasing},\qquad q\mapsto\mathbb{P}_q(\mathcal{C}_N)\text{ is increasing}.

Thus increasing qq should decrease the probability of state AN\mathcal{A}_N and increase the probability of consensus state CN\mathcal{C}_N. The paper states this as a suspected monotonicity and provides no proof in the supplied text.

References

Primary source

Raphael Eichhorn, Felix Hermann and Marco Seiler, “The Offended Voter Model”, arXiv:2502.18619 (2025).

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