The polynomial-form conjecture for lucky spots in parking functions

From papers

Let nn be a positive integer and let jj be a positive integer. A lucky spot is a parking spot occupied by a car whose preferred spot is that spot. Let fj(n)f_j(n) denote the polynomial appearing in the claimed formula, and let rjr_j be a rational number. Lucky-spot enumeration conjecture. The number of parking functions where the jj-th spot is lucky has the form

j+12j(n+1)n1fj(n)(nj+1)nj+1,\tfrac{j+1}{2j}(n+1)^{n-1}-f_j(n)(n-j+1)^{n-j+1},

where fj(n)f_j(n) is a polynomial of degree j2j-2 with rational coefficients. In particular, the asymptotic probability that the jj-th spot is lucky is

j+12jrjej.\frac{j+1}{2j}-r_je^{-j}.

The formulas are suggested by the explicitly computed cases j=1,2,3,4,5j=1,2,3,4,5; the conjecture proposes a uniform polynomial form and corresponding asymptotic expression for every jj.

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Primary source

Steve Butler, Kimberly Hadaway, Victoria Lenius, Preston Martens and Marshall Moats, “Lucky cars and lucky spots in parking functions”, arXiv:2412.07873 (2024).

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