The floor-probability bounds conjecture for convex sets

Let KK be a compact convex set with a flat floor over the segment [0,1][0,1], and let QK(n)Q_K(n) denote the corresponding probability that nn independent uniformly random points, together with the two endpoints of the floor, are in convex position. Set

tn=2nn!(n+1)!,qn=1n!(n+1)!(2nn).t_n=\frac{2^n}{n!(n+1)!},\qquad q_n=\frac{1}{n!(n+1)!}{2n\choose n}.

Floor-probability bounds conjecture. For all n3n\geq 3 and all KCCSF([0,1])K\in\operatorname{CCSF}([0,1]),

tnQK(n)qn.t_n\leq Q_K(n)\leq q_n.

The lower and upper bounds generalize the known n=2n=2 bounds, with the triangle and square giving the respective benchmark values. The supplied text presents these inequalities as a belief and does not provide a resolution.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Jean-François Marckert and Ludovic Morin, “The Sylvester question in R^d: convex sets with a flat floor”, arXiv:2411.08456 (2024).

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