Conjecture on rank-two tuples on the curve modulo p

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Let f∈Z[x,y]f\in\mathbb{Z}[x,y] and, for each prime pp, let CpC_p be the curve of points modulo pp defined by f(x,y)≡0(modp)f(x,y)\equiv 0\pmod p. For a kk-tuple P=((r1,s1),…,(rk,sk))\mathbf{P}=((r_1,s_1),\ldots,(r_k,s_k)) of element-wise distinct points on CpC_p, define

Bk(P)=[fx(r1,s1)fy(r1,s1)f(r1,s1)/p⋮⋮⋮fx(rk,sk)fy(rk,sk)f(rk,sk)/p].B_k(\mathbf{P})=\begin{bmatrix} f_x(r_1,s_1)&f_y(r_1,s_1)&f(r_1,s_1)/p\\ \vdots&\vdots&\vdots\\ f_x(r_k,s_k)&f_y(r_k,s_k)&f(r_k,s_k)/p\end{bmatrix}.

Let mk,2m_{k,2} be the number of such tuples for which Bk(P)B_k(\mathbf{P}) has rank 22 and its first two columns are linearly independent. Rank-two tuple conjecture. For all k≥2k\geq 2,

lim⁡p→∞mk,2p2=1.\lim_{p\to\infty}\frac{m_{k,2}}{p^2}=1.

This asymptotic is the key counting input for the paper's Poisson limit theorem: it describes the expected abundance of tuples satisfying the relevant rank condition, while the supplied text does not indicate whether the conjecture has been proved or disproved.

References

Primary source

Krishnan Rajkumar and Shubham, “On the Distribution of Points of Valuation 1 for a Polynomial in Two Variables”, arXiv:2411.05366 (2026).

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