Conjecture on rank-two tuples on the curve modulo p

From papers

Let fZ[x,y]f\in\mathbb{Z}[x,y] and, for each prime pp, let CpC_p be the curve of points modulo pp defined by f(x,y)0(modp)f(x,y)\equiv 0\pmod p. For a kk-tuple P=((r1,s1),,(rk,sk))\mathbf{P}=((r_1,s_1),\ldots,(r_k,s_k)) of element-wise distinct points on CpC_p, define

Bk(P)=[fx(r1,s1)fy(r1,s1)f(r1,s1)/pfx(rk,sk)fy(rk,sk)f(rk,sk)/p].B_k(\mathbf{P})=\begin{bmatrix} f_x(r_1,s_1)&f_y(r_1,s_1)&f(r_1,s_1)/p\\ \vdots&\vdots&\vdots\\ f_x(r_k,s_k)&f_y(r_k,s_k)&f(r_k,s_k)/p\end{bmatrix}.

Let mk,2m_{k,2} be the number of such tuples for which Bk(P)B_k(\mathbf{P}) has rank 22 and its first two columns are linearly independent. Rank-two tuple conjecture. For all k2k\geq 2,

limpmk,2p2=1.\lim_{p\to\infty}\frac{m_{k,2}}{p^2}=1.

This asymptotic is the key counting input for the paper's Poisson limit theorem: it describes the expected abundance of tuples satisfying the relevant rank condition, while the supplied text does not indicate whether the conjecture has been proved or disproved.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Krishnan Rajkumar and Shubham, “On the Distribution of Points of Valuation 1 for a Polynomial in Two Variables”, arXiv:2411.05366 (2026).

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