Tangent-flow-at-infinity conjecture for ancient Kähler-Ricci flows

Let (X,ω(t))(X,\omega(t)), t(,0]t\in(-\infty,0], be a non-collapsed ancient Kähler-Ricci flow. A non-collapsing weak Fano fibration is a fibration π:XY\pi:X\rightarrow Y with XX klt, YY normal affine, and KX-K_X relatively nef and big. A negative valuation is a function dd on the nonzero elements of the global anti-canonical ring satisfying

d(s1+s2)min{d(s1),d(s2)},d(s1s2)=d(s1)+d(s2).d(s_1+s_2)\geq\min\{d(s_1),d(s_2)\},\qquad d(s_1s_2)=d(s_1)+d(s_2).

It is K-polystable when its associated graded algebra is finitely generated and, with reversed grading, defines a K-polystable polarized Fano fibration.

Tangent flows at infinity conjecture. Given a non-collapsed ancient Kähler-Ricci flow (X,ω(t))(X,\omega(t)), t(,0]t\in(-\infty,0]:

  1. XX admits a non-collapsing weak Fano fibration structure and the flow naturally induces a K-polystable negative valuation.
  2. The tangent flow at infinity of ω(t)\omega(t) is unique and is given by the Kähler-Ricci shrinker determined by the K-polystable negative valuation via the K-polystability criterion for Kähler-Ricci shrinkers.

This is a global analogue of the weighted-volume degeneration conjecture and predicts uniqueness and algebraic characterization of tangent flows at infinity. It remains open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Song Sun and Junsheng Zhang, “Kähler-Ricci shrinkers and Fano fibrations”, arXiv:2410.09661 (2025).

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