Two-step degeneration conjecture for Kähler-Ricci flows at finite-time singularities

Let π:XY\pi:X\rightarrow Y be the Fano fibration at a finite singular time T<T<\infty of a compact Kähler-Ricci flow ω(t)\omega(t). For pYp\in Y and qπ1(p)q\in\pi^{-1}(p), a tangent flow is a rescaled limiting Kähler-Ricci flow at qq.

Finite-time two-step degeneration conjecture. For any pYp\in Y and qπ1(p)q\in\pi^{-1}(p):

  1. The Kähler-Ricci flow ω(t)\omega(t) naturally induces a weighted-volume-minimizing, hence K-semistable, valuation on (π:XY,p)(\pi:X\rightarrow Y,p).
  2. The tangent flow of ω(t)\omega(t) at qq is unique and is given by the Kähler-Ricci shrinker (π^:SC,ξ)(\widehat\pi:\mathcal S\rightarrow\mathcal C,\xi) canonically associated with the Fano fibration germ (π:XY,p)(\pi:X\rightarrow Y,p) via the weighted-volume minimization conjecture and the K-polystability criterion for Kähler-Ricci shrinkers.

This conjecture seeks an algebraic description and uniqueness theorem for tangent flows at finite-time singularities. The source presents it as a motivation from the known two-step degeneration picture in the Fano case; the general assertion remains open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Song Sun and Junsheng Zhang, “Kähler-Ricci shrinkers and Fano fibrations”, arXiv:2410.09661 (2025).

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