Manin's conjecture for Châtelet surfaces

Let ΔQ×\Delta\in\mathbb{Q}^\times satisfy ΔQ\sqrt{-\Delta}\notin\mathbb{Q}, and let f(z)Z[z]f(z)\in\mathbb{Z}[z] be a separable polynomial of degree 33 or 44 that decomposes as a product of rr irreducible polynomials f=f1frf=f_1\cdots f_r. Let XΔ,f/QX_{\Delta,f}/\mathbb{Q} be a Châtelet surface defined by

x2+Δy2=f(z).x^2+\Delta y^2=f(z).

Assume that XΔ,f(Q)X_{\Delta,f}(\mathbb{Q})\neq\emptyset. Manin's conjecture. As BB\to\infty,

N~(XΔ,f,B)CΔ,fBlog(B)ϱΔ,f1,\widetilde{N}(X_{\Delta,f},B)\sim C_{\Delta,f}B\log(B)^{\varrho_{\Delta,f}-1},

where CΔ,f>0C_{\Delta,f}>0 and

ϱΔ,f=2+#{1ir:ΔQ[z]/(fi(z))}.\varrho_{\Delta,f}=2+\#\{1\leq i\leq r:\sqrt{-\Delta}\in\mathbb{Q}[z]/(f_i(z))\}.

This is a precise form of the Batyrev–Manin prediction for the point-counting function associated with the natural height on a singular degree-four del Pezzo model of the Châtelet surface; Peyre's work interprets the leading constant through local densities and the Brauer group. The paper's abstract states that the conjecture is resolved for all Châtelet surfaces over Q\mathbb{Q}, including the case Δ<0\Delta<0; the result therefore establishes the asserted asymptotic in this setting.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Katharine Woo, “On Manin's conjecture for Châtelet surfaces”, arXiv:2409.17381 (2026).

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