The dimension conjecture for the product-measure locus in the permutation simplex

Let SmS_m be the symmetric group, let Δ(Sm)\Delta(S_m) be the simplex of probability distributions on SmS_m, and let PmΔ(Sm)P_m\subseteq\Delta(S_m) be the locus hit by product measures. A pure cycle is a permutation with exactly one nontrivial cycle and all other points fixed. Write

C(m)=k=2mm!k(mk)!C(m)=\sum_{k=2}^m \frac{m!}{k\cdot (m-k)!}

for the number of pure cycles in SmS_m.

Dimension conjecture. For all mm, the dimension of PmP_m is exactly C(m)C(m).

The paper proves the upper bound dimPmC(m)\dim P_m\leq C(m) and verifies equality for m7m\leq 7, but the equality is conjectural for general mm.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Eric Babson, Moon Duchin, Annina Iseli, Pietro Poggi-Corradini, Dylan Thurston and Jamie Tucker-Foltz, “Models of random spanning trees”, arXiv:2407.20226 (2026).

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