The isolation-by-distance central limit conjecture under varying population size

From papers

Let t0t\geq 0 and let ψ1,ψ2D(Td)\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal{D}(\mathbb{T}^d). Write ηN\eta_N for the scaling factor, PtN(ψ1,ψ2)P_t^N(\psi_1,\psi_2) for the isolation-by-distance quantity, ZtZ_t for the limiting fluctuation field, ntn_t for the limiting population-density field, and \mathds1\mathds{1}_{\diagdown} for the indicator appearing in the pairing. Isolation-by-distance central limit conjecture. For any t0t\geq 0 and any ψ1,ψ2D(Td)\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal{D}(\mathbb{T}^d), one has

limNNηNPtN(ψ1,ψ2)=E[ZtZt,(ψ1ψ2)\mathds1nt,ψ1nt,ψ2].\lim_{N\to\infty}N\eta_NP_t^N(\psi_1,\psi_2)=\mathbb{E}\left[\frac{\langle Z_t\otimes Z_t,(\psi_1\otimes\psi_2)\mathds{1}_{\diagdown}\rangle}{\langle n_t,\psi_1\rangle\langle n_t,\psi_2\rangle}\right].

When the population size is constant, the corresponding limit can be obtained using dominated convergence. For varying population size, the authors explain that a technicality prevents this argument under their current formulation; thus the conjectured limit remains unresolved in the stated generality.

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Primary source

Raphaël Forien and Bastian Wiederhold, “Central limit theorems describing isolation by distance under varying population size”, arXiv:2407.10211 (2025).

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