Large-system factorial-growth conjecture for explosive birth processes

Let F1==FAF_1=\ldots=F_A be the common birth-rate function for AA agents, and let the initial state be

X(0)=(1,,1).X(0)=(1,\ldots,1).

For each a2a\geq 2, let c(A,a)c(A,a) denote the tail-dependence constant appearing in the symmetric asymptotic relation for aa agents. Large-system factorial-growth conjecture. For every a2a\geq 2,

limAc(A,a)=a!,\lim_{A\to\infty}c(A,a)=a!,

so that

limAc(A,a)c(A,a1)=a.\lim_{A\to\infty}\frac{c(A,a)}{c(A,a-1)}=a.

The conjecture predicts factorial, and hence super-exponential, growth of the dependence constants in the number of agents conditioned to be losers. It is motivated by numerical computations for F(k)=k2F(k)=k^2 and by the heuristic following the conjecture; the supplied source does not state a proof or a resolution.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Thomas Gottfried and Stefan Grosskinsky, “Tails of explosive birth processes and applications to non-linear P ólya urns”, arXiv:2406.15006 (2024).

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