Fyodorov–Hiary–Keating conjecture on zeta maxima over mesoscopic intervals

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Let θ∈(−1,0]\theta\in(-1,0], let TT tend to infinity, and let τ\tau be uniformly distributed on [T,2T][T,2T]. Write N(0,1)\mathcal{N}(0,1) for a standard Gaussian random variable, and let M\mathcal{M} be a random variable that is O(1)O(1) in probability, independent of N(0,1)\mathcal{N}(0,1), with a tail of the form Cye−2yCye^{-2y}. Fyodorov–Hiary–Keating conjecture. The maximum satisfies

max⁡h≤log⁡θTlog⁡∣ζ(12+iτ+ih)∣∼(1+θ)log⁡log⁡T−34log⁡log⁡log⁡T+∣θ∣2log⁡log⁡T N(0,1)+M.\max_{h\leq\log^\theta T}\log\left|\zeta\left(\tfrac{1}{2}+i\tau+ih\right)\right|\sim(1+\theta)\log\log T-\frac{3}{4}\log\log\log T+\sqrt{\tfrac{|\theta|}{2}\log\log T}\,\mathcal{N}(0,1)+\mathcal{M}.

This conjecture describes the extreme values of the Riemann zeta function on mesoscopic intervals, incorporating both Gaussian fluctuations and an order-one extremal correction. The cited formulation is presented as a prediction from connections with log-correlated processes; its resolution is not supplied here.

References

Primary source

Louis-Pierre Arguin and Jad Hamdan, “The Fyodorov–Hiary–Keating Conjecture on Mesoscopic Intervals”, arXiv:2405.06474 (2026).

Additional references

7 papers in this index state this conjecture (2015–2024). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:1901.04061, arXiv:1706.08462, arXiv:1607.00243, arXiv:1602.08875, arXiv:1601.00582, arXiv:1506.00629.

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