Asymptotic logarithmic periodicity of the Hungarian roulette probabilities

Let pnp_n denote the probability associated with the Hungarian roulette model for nn players. The preceding concentration estimate indicates that pnp_n is essentially a weighted mean of o(n)o(n) probabilities pkp_k near pn/ep_{n/e}.

Asymptotic logarithmic periodicity conjecture. The sequence pnp_n does not converge as nn\to\infty over the positive integers, but it does along every subsequence (nj)(n_j) for which the fractional part of lognj\log n_j converges.

This predicts logarithmic periodicity in the asymptotic behavior of the roulette probabilities, while allowing convergence along suitably selected subsequences. The source presents this as a likely behavior rather than establishing it.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Tamás F. Móri and Gábor J. Székely, “Three classical probability problems: the Hungarian roulette”, arXiv:2404.10654 (2024).

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