Approximate factorization from a small two-terminal connection probability

Let aa, bb, and cc be vertices, and let P(abc)\mathbf{P}(ab\\|c), P(abc)\mathbf{P}(abc), P(ac)\mathbf{P}(ac), and P(bc)\mathbf{P}(bc) denote the corresponding bond-percolation event probabilities. Second conjecture. For any ε>0\varepsilon > 0 there exists δ>0\delta > 0 such that if P(abc)<δ\mathbf{P}(ab\\|c) < \delta, then

P(abc)P(ac)P(bc)<ε.\mathbf{P}(abc) - \mathbf{P}(ac)\mathbf{P}(bc) < \varepsilon.

This is the stronger of the two proposed stability statements, refining the exact factorization proved when P(abc)=0\mathbf{P}(ab\\|c)=0; its status is left open in the source.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Nikita Gladkov and Aleksandr Zimin, “Bond percolation does not simulate site percolation”, arXiv:2404.08873 (2026).

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