Small two-terminal connection probabilities force a negligible three-way connection

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Let aa, bb, and cc be vertices, and let P(ab∣c)\mathbf{P}(ab\\|c), P(ac∣b)\mathbf{P}(ac\\|b), P(abc)\mathbf{P}(abc), and P(a∣b∣c)\mathbf{P}(a\\|b\\|c) denote the corresponding bond-percolation event probabilities. First conjecture. For any ε>0\varepsilon > 0 there exists δ>0\delta > 0 such that if P(ab∣c)<δ\mathbf{P}(ab\\|c) < \delta and P(ac∣b)<δ\mathbf{P}(ac\\|b) < \delta, then P(abc)\mathbf{P}(abc) or P(a∣b∣c)\mathbf{P}(a\\|b\\|c) is less than ε\varepsilon. This asks for a stability version of the zero-probability implication established earlier: simultaneous smallness of the two connection probabilities should force one of the two remaining probabilities to be small.

References

Primary source

Nikita Gladkov and Aleksandr Zimin, “Bond percolation does not simulate site percolation”, arXiv:2404.08873 (2026).

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