Wagstaff's asymptotic conjecture for the least prime in an arithmetic progression

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Let nn be a positive integer, let a<na<n satisfy gcd⁡(a,n)=1\operatorname{gcd}(a,n)=1, and define

P(n,a)=min⁡{p∣p is prime and p≡a(modn)},P(n,a)=\min\{p\mid p\text{ is prime and }p\equiv a\pmod n\}, P(n)=max⁡(a,n)=1P(n,a),P(n)=\max_{(a,n)=1}P(n,a),

where ϕ\phi denotes Euler's totient function. Wagstaff's conjecture. As n→∞n\to\infty, for most nn,

P(n)∼ϕ(n)log⁡(n)log⁡(ϕ(n)).P(n)\sim\phi(n)\log(n)\log(\phi(n)).

This is the central heuristic prediction developed from Wagstaff's probabilistic model; the paper provides numerical evidence but no proof of the asserted asymptotic.

References

Primary source

Andrew Fiori, “The Least Prime in Arithmetic an Progression”, arXiv:2404.02329 (2024).

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