The Bayes–Unexpectedness correspondence conjecture

Let $s$ be a situation, let $C_W(s)$ denote its causal or world complexity, and let $C_D(s)$ denote its description complexity in Simplicity Theory (ST). Define unexpectedness by

$$U(s)=C_W(s)-C_D(s).$$

Bayes–Unexpectedness correspondence conjecture. Bayes’ rule is a specific instantiation of a more general template captured in ST by Unexpectedness. This conjecture proposes a theoretical relationship between Bayesian inference and the complexity-based account of unexpectedness, with the Bayesian formula corresponding to a special case involving causal candidates, likelihood, prior, and evidence. The source does not provide a proof or a resolution.