Conjecture on MDYPL state evolutions with an intercept

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Consider the logistic regression model with intercept

Pr⁡(yj=1∣xj)=ζ′(θ0+xj⊤β0),j=1,…,n,\Pr(y_j=1\mid\boldsymbol{x}_j)=\zeta'(\theta_0+\boldsymbol{x}_j^\top\boldsymbol{\beta}_0),\qquad j=1,\ldots,n,

where θ0∈R\theta_0\in\mathbb{R}, the covariates are independent realizations xj∼N(0p,Σ)\boldsymbol{x}_j\sim\mathcal{N}(\boldsymbol{0}_p,\boldsymbol{\Sigma}), and β0⊤Σβ0→γ2\boldsymbol{\beta}_0^\top\boldsymbol{\Sigma}\boldsymbol{\beta}_0\to\gamma^2 as n→∞n\to\infty. Let θ^0DY\hat{\theta}_0^{\mathrm{DY}} and β^DY\hat{\boldsymbol{\beta}}^{\mathrm{DY}} be the MDYPL estimates of the intercept and remaining coordinates, respectively. Let (μ∗,b∗,σ∗,ι∗)({\mu}_*,{b}_*,{\sigma}_*,\iota_*) be a nonsingular solution of the four-equation state-evolution system specified in the source, with parameters (α,κ,γ,θ0)(\alpha,\kappa,\gamma,\theta_0). MDYPL intercept conjecture. One has

θ^0DY⟶pι∗\hat{\theta}_0^{\mathrm{DY}}\overset{p}{\longrightarrow}\iota_*

as n→∞n\to\infty, and the source's asymptotic results for the zz-statistics and likelihood-ratio statistic hold with (μ∗,b∗,σ∗)({\mu}_*,{b}_*,{\sigma}_*) from that system. The intercept extension is outside the paper's current theory; the conjecture predicts that the state evolutions incorporate the intercept and become a system of four equations in four unknowns, with analogous inference results.

References

Primary source

Philipp Sterzinger and Ioannis Kosmidis, “Diaconis-Ylvisaker prior penalized likelihood for p/n κ(0,1) logistic regression”, arXiv:2311.07419 (2026).

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