Extinction due to sparse environment in the long-range contact process

Let q(t),p(0,1)q^{(t)},p\in(0,1) be given and let α>1\alpha>1. Let q(x)q^{(x)} denote the parameter controlling the sparse spatial environment in the long-range contact process (LoRaC). Extinction due to sparse environment. There exists qc(x)(0,1)q_c^{(x)}\in(0,1) such that, for every q(x)>qc(x)q^{(x)}>q_c^{(x)}, the LoRaC does not percolate. The conjecture concerns whether sufficiently sparse environments prevent survival; the paper explains that long lockdowns yield extinction by comparison with a Galton--Watson process, but that the effect of the sparse environment is more difficult and remains open.

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Primary source

Benedikt Jahnel and Anh Duc Vu, “A long-range contact process in a random environment”, arXiv:2310.12061 (2023).

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