Celoria–Friedl–Nagel–Orson–Powell almost-concordance conjecture

Let MM be a closed orientable 33-manifold with MS3M\neq S^3, and let x[S1,M]x\in[S^1,M] be a free homotopy class. A dual 22-sphere for xx is a 22-sphere in MM representing the relevant duality obstruction; assume that xx does not admit one. Celoria–Friedl–Nagel–Orson–Powell conjecture. The class xx contains infinitely many concordance classes of knots modulo local knotting.

This predicts that almost-concordance, or concordance up to local knotting, is highly nontrivial in general 33-manifolds. The conjecture remains open in many cases.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ryan Stees, “Milnor's invariants for knots and links in closed orientable 3-manifolds”, arXiv:2310.10918 (2025).

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