Twisted-fibration asymptotic conjecture for locally soluble fibres

Let π:XP1\pi:X\to\mathbb{P}^1 be a standard fibration, and let θ:P1(P1,π)\theta:\mathbb{P}^1\to(\mathbb{P}^1,\partial_\pi) be a finite étale orbifold morphism that is a GG-torsor under a finite étale group scheme GG. Assume that (P1,π)(\mathbb{P}^1,\partial_\pi) does not admit a finite étale orbifold morphism factoring through θ\theta. For each vH1(Gal(Q/Q),G)v\in H^1(\operatorname{Gal}(\overline{\mathbb{Q}}/\mathbb{Q}),G), let θv:P1P1\theta_v:\mathbb{P}^1\to\mathbb{P}^1 be the twist of θ\theta by vv, and let πv:XvP1\pi_v:X_v\to\mathbb{P}^1 be the normalisation of the pullback of π\pi along θv\theta_v. Let π\partial_\pi be the orbifold boundary defined by the minimum multiplicities of the fibres. Twisted-fibration asymptotic conjecture. If (KP1+π)-(K_{\mathbb{P}^1}+\partial_\pi) is ample and X(AQ)X(\mathbf{A}_\mathbb{Q})\neq\emptyset, then there exists cπ>0c_\pi>0 such that

Nloc(π,B)cπB2degπ(logB)minvH1(Gal(Q/Q),G)Δ(πv).N_{\text{loc}}(\pi,B)\sim c_\pi\frac{B^{2-\deg\partial_\pi}}{(\log B)^{\min_{v\in H^1(\operatorname{Gal}(\overline{\mathbb{Q}}/\mathbb{Q}),G)}\Delta(\pi_v)}}.

Here Δ(πv)\Delta(\pi_v) is the quantity defined in the source's equation (the definition is not included in the supplied excerpt). This conjecture proposes an exact asymptotic, refining the preceding upper-bound conjecture; the excerpt does not provide evidence of resolution.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Tim Browning, Julian Lyczak and Arne Smeets, “Paucity of rational points on fibrations with multiple fibres”, arXiv:2310.01135 (2023).

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