Monotonicity of asymptotic outbreak size for short-period infection rates
Monotonicity of asymptotic outbreak size for short-period infection rates
Let , and . Define
Short-period monotonicity conjecture. There exists such that, for all , the asymptotic outbreak size is decreasing in .
This conjecture concerns periodic infection rates with fixed recovery rate . It formalizes the observed numerical decrease of outbreak size with infection-rate amplitude when the period is sufficiently short; the statement is left for future investigation.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Juniper Cocomello and Kavita Ramanan, “Exact description of limiting SIR and SEIR dynamics on locally tree-like graphs”, arXiv:2309.08829 (2023).
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