The alternating two-player urn distribution conjecture
The alternating two-player urn distribution conjecture
Consider two walkers on the three-node segment, both starting at the center, with both edge weights initially equal to . The walkers move alternately, walker first, and each center departure chooses an edge with probability proportional to its current edge weight. Let and be the left and right edge weights after time , and define
Alternating two-player urn distribution conjecture. The random variable has a density with respect to Lebesgue measure on , is not Beta-distributed, and has a distribution different from that of the limit in the corresponding non-alternating two-player model.
The alternating model has a martingale only at suitable stopping times, but its edge-weight fraction is known to converge almost surely. The density and distributional comparisons are suggested by simulations and remain unproved.
Sources & referencesView supporting material
Primary source
Fabian Michel, “Variations on Reinforced Random Walks”, arXiv:2309.02475 (2023).
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