Silverman's arithmetic-order trichotomy conjecture

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Let X/KX/K be a smooth projective variety over a number field, let HH be a Weil height associated to an ample divisor, and define the arithmetic order A(X)\mathsf{A}(X) using the iterated-logarithm height-counting limit in the source. Silverman's arithmetic-order trichotomy conjecture. The arithmetic order A(X)\mathsf{A}(X) exists and satisfies

A(X)=0orA(X)=1orA(X)=∞.\mathsf{A}(X)=0\quad\text{or}\quad\mathsf{A}(X)=1\quad\text{or}\quad\mathsf{A}(X)=\infty.

Equivalently, height counting has, up to lower-order terms, one of three coarse regimes: power growth in TT, power growth in log⁡T\log T, or bounded growth. The source attributes this conjecture to Silverman and gives no resolution.

References

Primary source

Hector Pasten and Joseph H. Silverman, “Propagation of Zariski Dense Orbits”, arXiv:2307.12097 (2024).

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