Infinite-family criterion for pivotal exact e-variables

Let P\mathcal{P} and Q\mathcal{Q} be families of probability measures on X\mathfrak{X}. Suppose there exist P0PP_0\in\mathcal{P} and Q0QQ_0\in\mathcal{Q} such that PP0P\ll P_0 for every PPP\in\mathcal{P} and QQ0Q\ll Q_0 for every QQQ\in\mathcal{Q}. Assume that (P,Q)(\mathcal{P},\mathcal{Q}) is jointly atomless. Infinite-family pivotal e-variable conjecture. There exists a pivotal and exact e-variable XX satisfying

infQQEQ[logX]>0\inf_{Q\in\mathcal{Q}}\mathbb{E}^{Q}[\log X]>0

if and only if

0SpanP+ConvQ,0\notin\overline{\,\overline{\operatorname{Span}}\mathcal{P}+\overline{\operatorname{Conv}}\mathcal{Q}\,},

where the outer closure is taken with respect to total variation distance. This is proposed as a strengthening of the paper’s infinite-family theorem and as a characterization of when a nontrivial pivotal exact e-variable exists; the source leaves it open and suggests that simultaneous transport between infinite collections may be relevant.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Zhenyuan Zhang, Aaditya Ramdas and Ruodu Wang, “On the existence of powerful p-values and e-values for composite hypotheses”, arXiv:2305.16539 (2024).

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