Above-threshold prevalence-distance decay conjecture for NIMFA SIS epidemics

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Let GG be a graph, let KNK_N be the complete graph on NN vertices, let uu be the all-infected initial infection-probability vector, and let VV_\infty be the endemic steady-state infection-probability vector. Write y(t;G,τ,V(0))y(t;G,\tau,V(0)) for the prevalence with effective infection rate τ\tau, and let y(G;τ)y_\infty(G;\tau) denote its steady-state prevalence. Above-threshold decay conjecture. For any τ>τc\tau>\tau_c, if V(0)VV(0)\geq V_\infty, then

y(t;G,τ,V(0))y(G;τ)y(t;G,τ,u)y(G;τ)y(t;KN,τc(1)(KN),u)=11+t.\left|y(t;G,\tau,V(0))-y_\infty(G;\tau)\right|\leq\left|y(t;G,\tau,u)-y_\infty(G;\tau)\right|\leq y(t;K_N,\tau_c^{(1)}(K_N),u)=\frac{1}{1+t}.

Thus convergence to the endemic steady state is conjectured to be no slower than convergence of the critical complete-graph process to y=0y_\infty=0. The supplied text gives no resolution evidence.

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Primary source

Robin Persoons, Mattia Sensi, Bastian Prasse and Piet Van Mieghem, “Transition from time-variant to static networks: timescale separation in NIMFA SIS epidemics”, arXiv:2305.12446 (2024).

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