A sharp monotonicity and upper-bound conjecture for binomial tail ratios

Let Bn,k(p)B_{n,k}(p) be the binomial tail probability, bn,k(p)b_{n,k}(p) the corresponding binomial point probability, and L(n,k,p)L(n,k,p) the lower bound from the paper's Theorem~. Suppose k,nN0k,n\in\mathbb{N}_0, knk\leq n, and 0<p<10<p<1. Tail-ratio conjecture. The quantity

Bn,k(p)bn,k(p)L(n,k,p)\frac{B_{n,k}(p)}{b_{n,k}(p)L(n,k,p)}

is nondecreasing in kk and nonincreasing in nn and pp. In addition,

Bn,k(p)bn,k(p)<180451625143327232L(n,k,p)kpn,\frac{B_{n,k}(p)}{b_{n,k}(p)}<\frac{180451625}{143327232}L(n,k,p)\qquad\forall k\leq pn,

and

Bn,k(p)bn,k(p)<π2L(n,k,p)kpn1.\frac{B_{n,k}(p)}{b_{n,k}(p)}<\sqrt{\frac{\pi}{2}}L(n,k,p)\qquad\forall k\leq pn-1.

The conjecture seeks a sharp description of the ratio between the binomial tail and point probabilities, improving the factor-two bounds established in the paper; the stated numerical constant is approximately 1.259021.25902, while the conjecture is proved only in a special case using a connection with Ramanujan's equation.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Huangjun Zhu, Zihao Li and Masahito Hayashi, “Nearly tight universal bounds for the binomial tail probabilities”, arXiv:2211.01688 (2022).

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