Extended exponential tail bound for primes in short intervals

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Let x>1x>1, let h=λlog⁡xh=\lambda\log x, where λ=o((log⁡x)ε)\lambda=o((\log x)^\varepsilon) for every ε>0\varepsilon>0, and let k≪(log⁡h)2k\ll(\log h)^2. Define

πk(x;h):=#{n≤x:π(n+h)−π(n)=k}.\pi_k(x;h):=\#\{n\leq x:\pi(n+h)-\pi(n)=k\}.

Extended tail-bound conjecture. As x→∞x\to\infty,

πk(x;h)≪xexp⁡(−kλe).\pi_k(x;h)\ll x\exp\left(-\frac{k}{\lambda e}\right).

This extends the paper's conditional tail bound from k≪(log⁡h)1−δk\ll(\log h)^{1-\delta} to the larger range k≪(log⁡h)2k\ll(\log h)^2. The source presents it as a prediction and gives no resolution status.

References

Primary source

Vivian Kuperberg, “Sums of singular series with large sets and the tail of the distribution of primes”, arXiv:2210.09775 (2023).

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