Extended exponential tail bound for primes in short intervals

Let x>1x>1, let h=λlogxh=\lambda\log x, where λ=o((logx)ε)\lambda=o((\log x)^\varepsilon) for every ε>0\varepsilon>0, and let k(logh)2k\ll(\log h)^2. Define

πk(x;h):=#{nx:π(n+h)π(n)=k}.\pi_k(x;h):=\#\{n\leq x:\pi(n+h)-\pi(n)=k\}.

Extended tail-bound conjecture. As xx\to\infty,

πk(x;h)xexp(kλe).\pi_k(x;h)\ll x\exp\left(-\frac{k}{\lambda e}\right).

This extends the paper's conditional tail bound from k(logh)1δk\ll(\log h)^{1-\delta} to the larger range k(logh)2k\ll(\log h)^2. The source presents it as a prediction and gives no resolution status.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Vivian Kuperberg, “Sums of singular series with large sets and the tail of the distribution of primes”, arXiv:2210.09775 (2023).

Progress summary

Never refreshed

Nothing recorded yet. Refresh searches the literature and the public web for attempts on this problem, and writes the first summary here.

Solutions 0

No solutions have been posted yet.