Flip-flop conjecture for long-term averages of the stochastic logistic map

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Let ρ\rho be a positive integer, let λˉ\bar{\lambda} be the average parameter value, and let pi(λˉ)p_i(\bar{\lambda}) for 1≤i≤2ρ1\leq i\leq 2^\rho denote the stable period-2ρ2^\rho points of the deterministic logistic map with parameter λˉ\bar{\lambda}. Let μ∗\mu^* be the unique stable invariant distribution of the stochastic logistic map, and write Eμ∗(X)E_{\mu^*}(X) for the expected value of XX under this distribution. Flip-flop conjecture. If ρ\rho is odd, then, in regions with period 2ρ2^\rho,

Eμ∗(X)>12ρ∑i=12ρpi(λˉ).E_{\mu^*}(X) > \frac{1}{2^\rho}\sum_{i=1}^{2^\rho}p_i(\bar{\lambda}).

If ρ\rho is even, then, in regions with period 2ρ2^\rho,

Eμ∗(X)<12ρ∑i=12ρpi(λˉ).E_{\mu^*}(X) < \frac{1}{2^\rho}\sum_{i=1}^{2^\rho}p_i(\bar{\lambda}).

The conjecture predicts that the direction of the comparison alternates as the period increases, at least through the period-doubling range of the parameter. The proposed renormalization perspective relates this alternation to the switching convexity of iterates at the fixed point; the claim is supported empirically beyond the period-two case but is not proved in general.

References

Primary source

Maricela Cruz, Austin Wei, Johanna Hardin and Ami Radunskaya, “Long-term Averages of the Stochastic Logistic Map”, arXiv:2206.03849 (2023).

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