Conjecture on optimal responses in the flipped Penney-Ante game

From papers

Assume Player I chooses a binary string A=a1anA=a_1\dots a_n. In the flipped Penney-Ante game, the player whose string appears last wins. A response string for Player II is optimal if it maximizes Player II's winning probability against AA.

Flipped-game optimal-response conjecture. The best response strings for Player II are one or more of

HHH,TTT,a2anH,a2anT.HH\dots H,\quad TT\dots T,\quad a_2\dots a_nH,\quad a_2\dots a_nT.

The conjecture is motivated by computations through n=10n=10 and by the displayed examples, where optimal responses follow this four-form pattern. The source does not provide a resolution, and it remains open.

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Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Reed Phillips and A. J. Hildebrand, “The Number of Optimal Strategies in the Penney-Ante Game”, arXiv:2107.06952 (2021).

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