Let Zp be the ring of p-adic integers. Fix distinct d1,…,dr∈Z≥1 and not necessarily distinct k1,…,kr∈Z≥0. For each d, let M(d,p) be the set of monic irreducible polynomials of degree d in Fp[t]. For (Pˉ1,…,Pˉr)∈∏j=1rM(p,dj), let Pj be any lift of Pˉj to Zp[t], and let A be Haar-random in Matn(Zp). Poisson distribution conjecture. The limit
p→∞limProbA∈Matn(Zp)(∣coker(Pj(A))∣=pdjkjtextforall(Pˉ1,…,Pˉr)∈∏j=1rM(p,dj))
must exist, and
n→∞limp→∞limProbA∈Matn(Zp)(∣coker(Pj(A))∣=pdjkjtextforall(Pˉ1,…,Pˉr)∈∏j=1rM(p,dj))=j=1∏rkj!e−1/dj(1/dj)kj.
This conjecture generalizes the preceding theorem, whose limiting probability for all the cokernels to be trivial is ∏j=1re−1/dj. The claimed formula is the joint distribution of independent Poisson random variables with means 1/d1,…,1/dr. The authors report little empirical evidence and invite further examples supporting or disproving it, so its status remains open.