Conjecture on improving the Poisson approximation bound in Wasserstein distance

Let XiX_i, 1in1\leqslant i\leqslant n, be independent Bernoulli random variables with expectations EXi=pi\mathbb{E}X_i=p_i. Define W=i=1nXiW=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i, μ=i=1npi\mu=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i, μl=i=1npil\mu_l=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i^l, and λ=μμ2\lambda=\mu-\mu_2, and suppose that μ2\mu_2 is an integer. Let π\pi denote the Poisson distribution with mean λ\lambda, and let W2\mathbb{W}_2 denote the Wasserstein distance of order 22. The preceding bound is

W2(L(W),πδμ2)=W2(L(Wμ2),π)μ2eλ2/(4μ)+{6(μ2μ3)+μ2(7+λ)eλ2/(2μ)}1/2.\mathbb{W}_2(\mathcal{L}(W),\pi*\delta_{\mu_2})=\mathbb{W}_2(\mathcal{L}(W-\mu_2),\pi)\leqslant \mu_2e^{-\lambda^2/(4\mu)}+\left\{6(\mu_2-\mu_3)+\mu_2(7+\lambda)e^{-\lambda^2/(2\mu)}\right\}^{1/2}.

Conjecture on improving the Poisson approximation bound. The order of the upper bound in the displayed inequality can be significantly improved.

The conjecture concerns the accuracy of Poisson approximation for Poisson binomial distributions under the quadratic Wasserstein distance. The source gives no precise proposed order or evidence resolving the question, so its status remains open.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Zhong-Wei Liao, Yutao Ma and Aihua Xia, “On Stein's factors for Poisson approximation in Wasserstein distance with non-linear transportation costs”, arXiv:2003.13976 (2020).

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