Conjecture on improving the Poisson approximation bound in Wasserstein distance

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Let XiX_i, 1⩽i⩽n1\leqslant i\leqslant n, be independent Bernoulli random variables with expectations EXi=pi\mathbb{E}X_i=p_i. Define W=∑i=1nXiW=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i, μ=∑i=1npi\mu=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i, μl=∑i=1npil\mu_l=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i^l, and λ=μ−μ2\lambda=\mu-\mu_2, and suppose that μ2\mu_2 is an integer. Let π\pi denote the Poisson distribution with mean λ\lambda, and let W2\mathbb{W}_2 denote the Wasserstein distance of order 22. The preceding bound is

W2(L(W),π∗δμ2)=W2(L(W−μ2),π)⩽μ2e−λ2/(4μ)+{6(μ2−μ3)+μ2(7+λ)e−λ2/(2μ)}1/2.\mathbb{W}_2(\mathcal{L}(W),\pi*\delta_{\mu_2})=\mathbb{W}_2(\mathcal{L}(W-\mu_2),\pi)\leqslant \mu_2e^{-\lambda^2/(4\mu)}+\left\{6(\mu_2-\mu_3)+\mu_2(7+\lambda)e^{-\lambda^2/(2\mu)}\right\}^{1/2}.

Conjecture on improving the Poisson approximation bound. The order of the upper bound in the displayed inequality can be significantly improved.

The conjecture concerns the accuracy of Poisson approximation for Poisson binomial distributions under the quadratic Wasserstein distance. The source gives no precise proposed order or evidence resolving the question, so its status remains open.

References

Primary source

Zhong-Wei Liao, Yutao Ma and Aihua Xia, “On Stein's factors for Poisson approximation in Wasserstein distance with non-linear transportation costs”, arXiv:2003.13976 (2020).

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