Conjectured stable fluctuations of total length for regularly varying Lambda-coalescents

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Let g=12(5+1)g=\frac{1}{2}(\sqrt{5}+1) be the golden ratio. Suppose that the Λ\Lambda-coalescent is regularly varying with exponent 1<α<g1<\alpha<g, meaning that

∫y1Λ(dp)p2=y−αL(y−1),0<y<1,\int_y^1 \frac{\Lambda(dp)}{p^2}=y^{-\alpha}L(y^{-1}), \qquad 0<y<1,

where LL is slowly varying at infinity. Let (an)n≥1(a_n)_{n\ge1} satisfy an→∞a_n\to\infty, an=o(n)a_n=o(n), and

L(n/an)an−αΓ(2−α)L(n)=1+o(1)n.\frac{L(n/a_n)a_n^{-\alpha}}{\Gamma(2-\alpha)L(n)}=\frac{1+o(1)}{n}.

Total-length fluctuation conjecture. As n→∞n\to\infty,

ℓn−∫2nxμ(x),dxann1−α/L(n)⟶d−cζ,\frac{\ell_n-\int_2^n \frac{x}{\mu(x)}\\,dx}{a_n n^{1-\alpha}/L(n)}\stackrel{\rm d}{\longrightarrow}-c\zeta,

where

c=(α−1)1+1/α(1+α−α2)1/αΓ(2−α),c=\frac{(\alpha-1)^{1+1/\alpha}}{(1+\alpha-\alpha^2)^{1/\alpha}\Gamma(2-\alpha)},

and ζ\zeta is a stable random variable with index α\alpha characterized by E[ζ]=0\mathbb E[\zeta]=0, P(ζ>z)∼z−α\mathbb P(\zeta>z)\sim z^{-\alpha}, and P(ζ<−z)=o(z−α)\mathbb P(\zeta<-z)=o(z^{-\alpha}) as z→∞z\to\infty. The conjecture predicts a stable limit law for total-length fluctuations in the stated regularly varying regime.

References

Primary source

Götz Kersting and Anton Wakolbinger, “Probabilistic aspects of Λ-coalescents in equilibrium and in evolution”, arXiv:2002.05250 (2020).

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