Finite-n peak at four missing differences

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Let PnM(k)P_n^{\mathrm{M}}(k) denote the probability that a uniformly random subset S⊆[n]S\subseteq[n] has exactly kk missing differences, namely

PnM(k)=Pr⁡(2n−1−∣S−S∣=k).P_n^{\mathrm{M}}(k)=\Pr\bigl(2n-1-|S-S|=k\bigr).

Peak-at-four conjecture. For all n≥15n\ge 15 and every k≠4k\ne4,

PnM(4)>PnM(k).P_n^{\mathrm{M}}(4)>P_n^{\mathrm{M}}(k).

The paper proves that the limiting value at k=4k=4 is larger than the other values, and experimental data suggest that n=15n=15 already suffices; the conjecture supplies this explicit finite threshold.

References

Primary source

Scott Harvey-Arnold, Steven J. Miller and Fei Peng, “Distribution of missing differences in diffsets”, arXiv:2001.08931 (2020).

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