Talagrand's fractional expectation-threshold conjecture

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Let XX be a finite set and let F⊆2X{\mathcal F}\subseteq 2^X be increasing. Let pc(F)p_c({\mathcal F}) be the threshold defined by μp(F)=1/2\mu_p({\mathcal F})=1/2. Define the fractional expectation-threshold qf(F)q_f({\mathcal F}) as the largest pp for which there is a function g:2X→R+g:2^X\to\mathbb R^+ satisfying

∑S⊆Tg(S)≥1for every T∈F,∑S⊆Xg(S)p∣S∣≤12.\sum_{S\subseteq T}g(S)\geq1\quad\text{for every }T\in{\mathcal F},\qquad \sum_{S\subseteq X}g(S)p^{|S|}\leq\frac12.

Talagrand's fractional expectation-threshold conjecture. There is a universal constant KK such that

pc(F)≤Kqf(F)log⁡∣X∣.p_c({\mathcal F})\leq Kq_f({\mathcal F})\log|X|.

This is a fractional relaxation of the Kahn–Kalai expectation-threshold conjecture. The source presents it as a conjecture of Talagrand and notes that a stronger theorem replacing ∣X∣|X| by a smaller parameter is proved in the paper.

References

Primary source

Keith Frankston, Jeff Kahn, Bhargav Narayanan and Jinyoung Park, “Thresholds versus fractional expectation-thresholds”, arXiv:1910.13433 (2019).

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