Non-concentration conjecture for normalized theta-coefficients

Let EE be a semistable elliptic curve over Q\mathbb{Q} with conductor NN, and for every real cyclic extension F/QF/\mathbb{Q} of degree d3d\geq3 and conductor mm define the normalized theta-coefficient

c~F,γ=cF,γdφ(m)log(m).\widetilde c_{F,\gamma}=\frac{c_{F,\gamma}\sqrt d}{\sqrt{\varphi(m)\log(m)}}.

Let Σd,α,β(X)\Sigma_{d,\alpha,\beta}(X) be the multiset of c~F,γmαlog(m)β\widetilde c_{F,\gamma}m^\alpha\log(m)^\beta for real cyclic degree-dd extensions with m<Xm<X and generic or special+^+ γ\gamma. Non-concentration conjecture. There is a constant BE>0B_E>0 and, for every d3d\geq3, real numbers αd,βd\alpha_d,\beta_d such that for every real open interval (a,b)(a,b),

lim supX#(Σd,αd,βd(X)(a,b))#Σd,αd,βd(X)<BE(ba),\limsup_{X\to\infty}\frac{\#\bigl(\Sigma_{d,\alpha_d,\beta_d}(X)\cap(a,b)\bigr)}{\#\Sigma_{d,\alpha_d,\beta_d}(X)}<B_E(b-a),

while {αdφ(d):d3}\{\alpha_d\varphi(d):d\geq3\} is bounded and limdβd=0\lim_{d\to\infty}\beta_d=0. This is a deliberately weaker prediction than convergence to a nonzero normal distribution, motivated by computations and random-matrix heuristics.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Barry Mazur and Karl Rubin, “Arithmetic conjectures suggested by the statistical behavior of modular symbols”, arXiv:1910.12798 (2020).

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