Polynomiality conjecture for the ML degree of linear covariance models

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Let mm be the dimension of a linear covariance model and let nn be its ambient dimension. The ML degree is the number of complex critical points of the likelihood equations for a generic model, counted with multiplicity.

ML-degree polynomiality conjecture. For m≥3m\geq 3, the ML degree is a polynomial of degree m−1m-1 in nn. In the cases stated in the source, for m=3m=3 it equals

3n2−9n+7,3n^2-9n+7,

and for m=4m=4 it equals

113n3−18n2+853n−15.\frac{11}{3}n^3-18n^2+\frac{85}{3}n-15.

The conjecture extends the observed polynomiality along the rows of the table of generic models. The case m=2m=2 is known separately, where the ML degree equals 2n−32n-3; the supplied text does not state a resolution for the conjecture for general m≥3m\geq 3.

References

Primary source

Bernd Sturmfels, Sascha Timme and Piotr Zwiernik, “Estimating linear covariance models with numerical nonlinear algebra”, arXiv:1909.00566 (2019).

Additional references

2 papers in this index state this conjecture (2014–2019). The statement above is taken from the most recent of them; the others are arXiv:1407.2901.

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