Extreme coherent laws are 2 by 2 laws

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Let C\mathcal{C} be the compact convex set of coherent probability laws of (X,Y)(X,Y) on [0,1]2[0,1]^2, and let ext⁡(C)\operatorname{ext}(\mathcal{C}) denote its extreme points. A law is a 2×22\times2 law if (X,Y)(X,Y) is supported on at most two values of XX and at most two values of YY. Extreme-law conjecture. Every law in ext⁡(C)\operatorname{ext}(\mathcal{C}) is a 2×22\times2 law. Characterizing the extreme coherent laws is presented as an open problem, and the source gives no resolution of this stronger particular assertion.

References

Primary source

Krzysztof Burdzy and Jim Pitman, “Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions”, arXiv:1903.07773 (2019).

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