Extreme coherent laws are 2 by 2 laws

Let C\mathcal{C} be the compact convex set of coherent probability laws of (X,Y)(X,Y) on [0,1]2[0,1]^2, and let ext(C)\operatorname{ext}(\mathcal{C}) denote its extreme points. A law is a 2×22\times2 law if (X,Y)(X,Y) is supported on at most two values of XX and at most two values of YY. Extreme-law conjecture. Every law in ext(C)\operatorname{ext}(\mathcal{C}) is a 2×22\times2 law. Characterizing the extreme coherent laws is presented as an open problem, and the source gives no resolution of this stronger particular assertion.

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Primary source

Krzysztof Burdzy and Jim Pitman, “Bounds on the probability of radically different opinions”, arXiv:1903.07773 (2019).

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