The fixed-break strong law conjecture

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For each M≥1M\geq1 and k≥0k\geq0, let p~M,k\tilde p_{M,k} be the fraction of the first MM records that break precisely kk remaining records. Strong law conjecture. For every fixed k≥0k\geq0,

p~M,k⟶a.s.2−(k+1)\tilde p_{M,k}\overset{\mathrm{a.s.}}{\longrightarrow}2^{-(k+1)}

as M→∞M\to\infty. This is the pointwise strong-law consequence of the uniform Glivenko–Cantelli conjecture, and the paper notes that conversely the pointwise statement also implies the uniform one.

References

Primary source

James Allen Fill, “Breaking Bivariate Records”, arXiv:1901.08232 (2019).

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