The fixed-break strong law conjecture

For each M1M\geq1 and k0k\geq0, let p~M,k\tilde p_{M,k} be the fraction of the first MM records that break precisely kk remaining records. Strong law conjecture. For every fixed k0k\geq0,

p~M,ka.s.2(k+1)\tilde p_{M,k}\overset{\mathrm{a.s.}}{\longrightarrow}2^{-(k+1)}

as MM\to\infty. This is the pointwise strong-law consequence of the uniform Glivenko–Cantelli conjecture, and the paper notes that conversely the pointwise statement also implies the uniform one.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

James Allen Fill, “Breaking Bivariate Records”, arXiv:1901.08232 (2019).

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