Binomial approximation and large deviations for defaults
Let be the total number of defaults among banks, and let be the corresponding asymptotic default probability. Default-count conjecture. The random variable should be approximately binomially distributed with parameters and , and large-deviation estimates for a binomial distribution should apply to . This would permit rare-event probabilities for systemic defaults to be estimated through binomial large-deviation theory. The source does not specify a precise mode of approximation or establish the claimed large-deviation principle.
References
Primary source
Veeraruna Kavitha, Indrajit Saha and Sandeep Juneja, “Random Fixed Points, Limits and Systemic risk”, arXiv:1809.05243 (2021).
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