Drift classification conjecture for Markov-modulated diffusions

Let A\mathcal{A} be a manifold in Rd\mathbb{R}^d without boundary, and let (Xt,ηt)(X_t,\eta_t) be a diffusion process on R×A\mathbb{R}\times\mathcal{A}. Assume that ηt\eta_t has stationary distribution π\pi, that μ:AR\mu:\mathcal{A}\to\mathbb{R} is bounded and continuous, and that the diffusion coefficient σ\sigma is bounded away from zero and infinity. Drift classification conjecture. If

Aπ(dx)μ(x)>0,\int_{\mathcal{A}}\pi(\mathrm{d}x)\,\mu(x)>0,

then XtX_t\to\infty; if

Aπ(dx)μ(x)<0,\int_{\mathcal{A}}\pi(\mathrm{d}x)\,\mu(x)<0,

then XtX_t\to-\infty. This conjectured classification extends the corresponding discrete half-strip model to continuum Markov-modulated diffusions; the zero-drift case is not asserted here and remains untreated.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Chak Hei Lo, “On some random walk problems”, arXiv:1802.06623 (2018).

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