Distribution conjecture for Hasse failures on Markoff-type cubic surfaces

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For each integer k≥0k\geq 0, let h(k)\mathfrak{h}(k) be the associated class number, and call kk admissible when it satisfies the paper's admissibility condition. For K≥0K\geq 0, let C0>0C_0>0, let Ct>0C_t>0 for each t≥1t\geq 1, and let θ\theta satisfy

12<θ<1.\frac{1}{2}<\theta<1.

Distribution conjecture. The number of Hasse failures for 0≤k≤K0\leq k\leq K satisfies

∣{0≤k≤K:h(k)=0 and k admissible}∣∼C0Kθ.\left|\left\{0\leq k\leq K:\mathfrak{h}(k)=0\ \text{and}\ k\ \text{admissible}\right\}\right|\sim C_0K^{\theta}.

More generally, for t≥1t\geq 1,

∣{0≤k≤K:h(k)=t}∣∼CtKθ.\left|\left\{0\leq k\leq K:\mathfrak{h}(k)=t\right\}\right|\sim C_tK^{\theta}.

This conjecture predicts a power-law distribution for the number of Hasse failures and, more generally, for parameters having any fixed positive class number. The source gives numerical motivation but no resolution.

References

Primary source

Amit Ghosh and Peter Sarnak, “Integral points on Markoff type cubic surfaces”, arXiv:1706.06712 (2022).

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