Conjecture on the variance of the normalized Euler totient function in intervals

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Let R0(x):=∑n≤xφ(n)n−xζ(2)R_0(x):=\sum_{n\leq x}\frac{\varphi(n)}{n}-\frac{x}{\zeta(2)} and, for an interval of size HH, let

R0(x;H):=R0(x+H)−R0(x)=∑x<n≤x+Hφ(n)n−Hζ(2).R_0(x;H):=R_0(x+H)-R_0(x)=\sum_{x<n\leq x+H}\frac{\varphi(n)}{n}-\frac{H}{\zeta(2)}.

Let H=Θ(xδ)H=\Theta(x^\delta) for some fixed 0<δ≤10<\delta\leq 1. Variance conjecture. Then

1X∑x≤XR0(x,H)2∼16ζ(2)−16ζ(2)2.\frac{1}{X}\sum_{x\leq X}R_0(x,H)^2\sim \frac{1}{6\zeta(2)}-\frac{1}{6\zeta(2)^2}.

This predicts the discrete mean square, and hence the variance, of the normalized Euler totient function over intervals whose length is a fixed power of the endpoint. The cited results establish mean-square information for the unrestricted remainder term, but the stated interval variance remains conjectural in the source.

References

Primary source

Tom van Overbeeke, “The variance of the Euler totient function”, arXiv:1706.04028 (2017).

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