Hooley's conjecture on the variance of primes in arithmetic progressions

For a fixed modulus cc, define

G(X,c)=Amodcgcd(A,c)=1nXn=AmodcΛ(n)Xϕ(c)2,G(X,c)=\sum_{\substack{A\bmod c\\ \gcd(A,c)=1}}\left|\sum_{\substack{n\leq X\\ n=A\bmod c}}\Lambda(n)-\frac{X}{\phi(c)}\right|^2,

where Λ(n)\Lambda(n) is the von Mangoldt function and ϕ(c)\phi(c) is Euler's totient function. Hooley's conjecture.

G(X,c)Xlogc.G(X,c)\sim X\log c.

Hooley did not specify the size of cc relative to XX for which this asymptotic should hold. The source describes this conjecture as open, while noting that related asymptotic formulae are known when the modulus is averaged over a long range.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Chris Hall, Jonathan P. Keating and Edva Roditty-Gershon, “Variance of sums in arithmetic progressions of arithmetic functions associated with higher degree L-functions in F_q[t]”, arXiv:1703.09190 (2017).

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