Conjecture on extinction of the disease in the stochastic SIS model

Let I(t)I(t) denote the infected population in the stochastic SIS model, with parameters β\beta, μ\mu, γ\gamma, NN, and noise intensity σ\sigma, and define the stochastic basic reproduction number

R0S:=βNμ+γσ2N22(μ+γ).R_0^S:=\frac{\beta N}{\mu+\gamma}-\frac{\sigma^2N^2}{2(\mu+\gamma)}.

Extinction conjecture. If R0S<1R_0^S<1 and

β22(μ+γ)σ2>βN,\frac{\beta^2}{2(\mu+\gamma)}\geqslant\sigma^2>\frac{\beta}{N},

then the disease will die out with probability one. This fills the parameter regime not covered by the previously established extinction conditions for the stochastic SIS model; the conjecture concerns almost-sure extinction in the intermediate noise-intensity range.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Chuang Xu, “Global Threshold Dynamics of a Stochastic Differential Equation SIS Model”, arXiv:1506.02342 (2016).

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