Mottram's path-selection conjecture for conditioned Brownian motion

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Let U⊆R×[0,∞)U\subseteq\mathbb{R}\times[0,\infty) be open with (0,0)∈U(0,0)\in U, and let cost⁡(P)\operatorname{cost}(P) be the path cost. Assume that there is a unique path PP from (0,0)(0,0)) to ∂U\partial U such that cost⁡(P)<cost⁡(P~)\operatorname{cost}(P)<\operatorname{cost}(\widetilde P) for every other such path P~\widetilde P. Let EaU\mathcal{E}_a^U be the corresponding conditioning events. Mottram's path-selection conjecture. The path PP is parametrised by (vt,t)(vt,t) for a constant vv, the conditioned measures W(⋅∣EaU)\mathbb{W}(\mathord\cdot\mid\mathcal{E}_a^U) converge weakly to a limit QU\mathbb{Q}^U as a→∞a\to\infty, and

Wtt⟶v\frac{W_t}{t}\longrightarrow v

in QU\mathbb{Q}^U-probability. The conjecture formalises the expectation that a unique least-cost exit path determines the macroscopic route and limiting speed; the supplied context gives supporting cost estimates but no proof of the full assertion.

References

Primary source

Edward Mottram, “A universal exponent for Brownian entropic repulsion”, arXiv:1411.6943 (2014).

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