Positive proportion conjecture for locally soluble fibres

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Let XX satisfy the stated assumptions, let HH be an anticanonical height function, and let π:Y→X\pi:Y\to X be a proper surjective almost smooth morphism with geometrically integral generic fibre. Assume that Y(AF)≠∅Y(\mathbf{A}_F)\neq\emptyset and that every codimension-one fibre π−1(D)\pi^{-1}(D), for D∈X(1)D\in X^{(1)}, is split. Let Nloc(U,H,π,B)N_{\mathrm{loc}}(U,H,\pi,B) count points in U(F)U(F) of height at most BB whose fibres have adelic points. Positive proportion conjecture. There exists an open subset U⊂XU\subset X such that

lim⁡B→∞Nloc(U,H,π,B)N(U,H,B)>0.\lim_{B\to\infty}\frac{N_{\mathrm{loc}}(U,H,\pi,B)}{N(U,H,B)}>0.

This predicts a positive-density supply of everywhere locally soluble members when no codimension-one fibre is non-split. The supplied text gives no resolution evidence.

References

Primary source

Daniel Loughran, “The number of varieties in a family which contain a rational point”, arXiv:1310.6219 (2016).

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