Antal and Krapivsky's growth conjecture for multistage epidemics

Assume that εn,k=δn,k=0\varepsilon_{n,k}=\delta_{n,k}=0. For k=1,,Kk=1,\ldots,K, let Nn,kN_{n,k} be the number of individuals who are ever of type kk during the epidemic, which starts from

an,1(0)=1,an,k(0)=0 for k=2,,K+1.a_{n,1}(0)=1,\qquad a_{n,k}(0)=0\text{ for }k=2,\ldots,K+1.

Define

λK=2K1(K+1)2K1.\lambda_K=\frac{2^K-1}{(K+1)2^K-1}.

Antal and Krapivsky's conjecture. For each k=1,,Kk=1,\ldots,K, the expected number of individuals of type kk satisfies

E(Nn,k) grows like nklambdaK as nto+.\mathbb{E}(N_{n,k})\text{ grows like }n^{klambda_K}\text{ as }nto+\infty.

This conjecture, formulated in the cited work, concerns the polynomial growth of the expected numbers of individuals reaching each stage in a critical multistage epidemic. The supplied material does not state whether it has been proved or disproved.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Florian Simatos, “State space collapse for critical multistage epidemics”, arXiv:1310.0192 (2014).

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