Bernstein–von Mises conjecture for the kernel variance in normal location mixtures

Let X1,X2,X_1,X_2,\ldots be an independent and identically distributed sample from P0=Pσ0,F0P_0=P_{\sigma_0,F_0} in the semiparametric normal location mixture model parametrized by the model in the source. Let Σ=[σ,σ+](0,)\Sigma=[\sigma_-,\sigma_+]\subset(0,\infty) have a thick prior, and let D[0,1]\mathscr D[0,1] carry a Dirichlet prior DαD_{\alpha} with finite base measure α\alpha dominating Lebesgue measure on [0,1][0,1]. Assume that the efficient Fisher information at P0P_0 is nonsingular. Bernstein–von Mises conjecture. The marginal posterior for the kernel variance σ\sigma should satisfy

supBB(Σ)Π(n(σσ0)BX1,,Xn)NΔ~n,I~σ0,F01(B)P00.\sup_{B\in\mathscr B(\Sigma)}\left|\Pi\left(\sqrt n(\sigma-\sigma_0)\in B\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n\right)-N_{\widetilde{\Delta}_n,\widetilde{I}_{\sigma_0,F_0}^{-1}}(B)\right|\mathrel{\longrightarrow^{P_0}}0.

This predicts a Bernstein–von Mises limit for the finite-dimensional kernel-variance parameter despite the infinite-dimensional mixing distribution. The statement concerns semiparametric posterior asymptotic normality under the stated prior and information assumptions.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

B. J. K. Kleijn, “Semiparametric posterior limits”, arXiv:1305.4836 (2013).

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