Normal distribution conjecture for asymptotic Betti tables

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Let XX be a smooth projective variety of dimension nn, let LdL_d be the very positive line bundles used to define the Betti numbers kp,q(X;Ld)k_{p,q}(X;L_d), and write rdr_d for the relevant embedding dimension. Fix a weight 1≤q≤n1\leq q\leq n and a sequence of integers pdp_d satisfying

pd→rd2+a⋅rd2p_d\to \frac{r_d}{2}+a\cdot\frac{\sqrt{r_d}}{2}

for a fixed number aa. Asymptotic normal-distribution conjecture. There is a normalizing function Fq(d)F_q(d), depending on XX and geometric data, such that

Fq(d)⋅kpd,q(X;Ld)⟶e−a2/2F_q(d)\cdot k_{p_d,q}(X;L_d)\longrightarrow e^{-a^2/2}

as d→∞d\to\infty and pd→rd2+a⋅rd2p_d\to \frac{r_d}{2}+a\cdot\frac{\sqrt{r_d}}{2}. Equivalently, the rows of the Betti table of any very positive embedding should display roughly the pattern of a large Koszul complex. The conjecture extends the proved normal-distribution asymptotics for curves to arbitrary smooth projective varieties, but no resolution is supplied here.

References

Primary source

Lawrence Ein, Daniel Erman and Robert Lazarsfeld, “Asymptotics of random Betti tables”, arXiv:1207.5467 (2012).

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