Normal distribution conjecture for asymptotic Betti tables

Let XX be a smooth projective variety of dimension nn, let LdL_d be the very positive line bundles used to define the Betti numbers kp,q(X;Ld)k_{p,q}(X;L_d), and write rdr_d for the relevant embedding dimension. Fix a weight 1qn1\leq q\leq n and a sequence of integers pdp_d satisfying

pdrd2+ard2p_d\to \frac{r_d}{2}+a\cdot\frac{\sqrt{r_d}}{2}

for a fixed number aa. Asymptotic normal-distribution conjecture. There is a normalizing function Fq(d)F_q(d), depending on XX and geometric data, such that

Fq(d)kpd,q(X;Ld)ea2/2F_q(d)\cdot k_{p_d,q}(X;L_d)\longrightarrow e^{-a^2/2}

as dd\to\infty and pdrd2+ard2p_d\to \frac{r_d}{2}+a\cdot\frac{\sqrt{r_d}}{2}. Equivalently, the rows of the Betti table of any very positive embedding should display roughly the pattern of a large Koszul complex. The conjecture extends the proved normal-distribution asymptotics for curves to arbitrary smooth projective varieties, but no resolution is supplied here.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Lawrence Ein, Daniel Erman and Robert Lazarsfeld, “Asymptotics of random Betti tables”, arXiv:1207.5467 (2012).

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