Kunita's exchange conjecture for purely nondeterministic hidden Markov models

Let (Xk,Yk)kZ(X_k,Y_k)_{k\in\mathbb{Z}} be a stationary hidden Markov model with hidden state space EE and observation space FF. The hidden process is purely nondeterministic if

E[P[XnAX0]μ(A)]n0\mathbf{E}\big[|\mathbf{P}[X_n\in A|X_0]-\mu(A) |\big] \xrightarrow{n\to\infty}0

for every AB(E)A\in\mathcal{B}(E), where μ\mu is the invariant distribution of X0X_0. The observations are nondegenerate if there exist a σ\sigma-finite reference measure φ\varphi on FF and a strictly positive measurable function g:E×F]0,[g:E\times F\to]0,\infty[ such that

Φ(x,A)=1A(y),g(x,y),φ(dy)\Phi(x,A) = \int \mathbf{1}_A(y)\\,g(x,y)\\,\varphi(dy)

for all xEx\in E and AB(F)A\in\mathcal{B}(F). The exchange identity is the equality between the intersection and supremum of the relevant sigma-fields, denoted by

inthesource.Kunitasexchangeconjecture.Ifthehiddenprocessispurelynondeterministicandtheobservationsarenondegenerate,thenin the source. **Kunita's exchange conjecture.** If the hidden process is purely nondeterministic and the observations are nondegenerate, then

holds true.

This conjecture would extend the known result from absolutely regular hidden processes to purely nondeterministic ones. The source states that it was conjectured in the cited work and provides no resolution here.

Sources & referencesView supporting material

Primary source

Ramon van Handel, “On the exchange of intersection and supremum of sigma-fields in filtering theory”, arXiv:1009.0507 (2011).

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